AJ, best two pairs on turn, draw board with A, turn action

 

Opponent : 41/13/43 (vpip / pfr / call open raise), aggression = 1.3; 3bet = 3; WTSD = 29

$0.10/$0.20 No Limit Holdem • 4 Players • 

 

Hero    $20
BTN $25.15
SB $18.58 
BB $16.70 

Pre-Flop ($0.30, 4 players) Hero is CO

Jack of diamondsAce of clubs

Hero raises to $0.70, 1 fold, SB calls $0.60, 1 fold

Flop ($1.60, 2 players)

Eight of spadesSeven of spades Ad

SB bets $1.60, Hero raises to $4, SB calls $2.40

Turn ($9.60, 2 players)

Jack of hearts

SB checks, Hero bets $7.20, SB goes all-in $13.88, Hero...?

 Passive opponent made a big donkbet. What could it be? Perhaps the only good hand or a very good draw. Should I have done a re-raise on the flop bigger? Call for my opponent is 3:1, it is not bad for him considering implied. What to do on the turn? It is usually assumed that the check-raise on the turn is a sign of a monster, but I was given the chance to 4.6:1, and I have two pair...

In the range of an opponent :

88-77,AQs-AJs,AsTs,As9s,A8s-A7s,T9s,87s,AQo-AJo,A8o-A7o,T9o,87o

This is the widest range, with all the hands he could have played a check-raise.
If so, then we have 57%:

 Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

 2,244  games     0.047 secs    47,744  games/sec

Board: 7s 8s Ad Jh

Dead: 

                equity      win          tie                  pots won           pots tied 

Hand 0:   62.233%                  58.51%    03.72%              1313                    83.50   { AcJd }

Hand 1:   37.767%                  34.05%    03.72%               764                     83.50   { AQs-AJs, AsTs, As9s, A8s-A7s, T9s, 87s, AQo-AJo, A8o-A7o, T9o, 87o }

 

But we can reduce the range

With AQ, he could do resteal preflop.

With T9s, 78, 77, 88  he could push on the flop.

(but opponents are not very strong, he is half fish, I can not always accurately understand its logic game with different cards)

Then: 

AJs,AsTs,As9s,A8s-A7s,T9s,AJo,A8o-A7o,T9o

and:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,244  games     0.047 secs    47,744  games/sec

Board: 7s 8s Ad Jh

Dead: 

                equity      win          tie                  pots won           pots tied 

Hand 0:   62.233%                  58.51%    03.72%              1313                    83.50   { AcJd }

Hand 1:   37.767%                  34.05%    03.72%               764                     83.50   { AQs-AJs, AsTs, As9s, A8s-A7s, T9s, 87s, AQo-AJo, A8o-A7o, T9o, 87o }

 

 

 What do you think? 

 


5 Responses

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sfnwht
sfnwht Silver 3
3980d ago

When you play someone who is loose and passive, you must be careful when they do show aggression esp. when out of position.  At this point on the turn after betting 75% of the pot and investing 50% I call.  That being said, I might have played it differently.  I probably would have made it $6.40 on the flop, but with a non aggressive player getting aggressive I might just call.  With the turn bringing a J and it being checked I may check also.  I know its weaker, but it will complete some draws  or make a set, and we are still well behind any flopped set.

default
default Bronze 3
3978d ago

Excellent analysis! Thank you!  What limits do you play? Very nice to see such high quality posts!

1 Comments »
Posted by sfnwht on 11/01/2010 10:37AM [ Reply ]

I play the micro levels right now. Trying to build from nothing into something. 0 --> 14(now) and upwards.

TedHeris
TedHeris Silver 3
3976d ago

what kind of hand ...

vlady002
vlady002 Silver 3
3976d ago

hh, but SB cards why you don't put to see his/her cards ? ....and the river come.... :-??..... calculations to be made and depending on who owns SB .....+ river that there was not posted yet, so chances are big enough to see a surprise.

Or do I have understood this problem well enough

TedHeris
TedHeris Silver 3
3970d ago

incredible...

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